What this chart shows
This chart shows the US Headline and Core1 CPI (Consumer Price Index) measure over the past five years, highlighting how disinflationary progress has stalled in recent months. Following the steepest policy tightening in 40 years undertaken by the Federal Reserve to combat spiking inflation, price pressures have eased significantly falling to 3.4% at the end of last year. Since then, things have not gone as planned, with three consecutive CPI reports coming in above expectations leaving the yearly Headline figure at 3.6%, far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Although the core goods, food and energy components have cooled as expected, upside surprises in the core services component of the index have led to stickiness. Here, categories such as shelter (housing) costs and car insurance premiums are the main culprits.
Why this is important
Of main importance to investors, is how inflation figures feed into the Fed’s decision-making over interest rates, as this impacts underlying valuations across all asset classes. While two readings surpassing expectations might be brushed off as anomalies, a third is one too many to ignore and policymakers have taken note. Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell commented at an IMF conference a few weeks ago “we’ll need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 per cent before it would be appropriate to ease policy … the recent data has clearly not given us greater confidence”. This marked a significant pivot from the dovish tilt taken by the Fed in December last year and markets reacted by dramatically dialling back expectations for 2024 interest rate cuts. As a result, bond markets experienced a significant sell-off with yields rising across the maturity curve, and equities likewise tumbled. While there are a lot of nuances within each component of CPI, three misses in economists’ expectations demonstrate that the current data is noisy. This makes the Federal Reserve’s job tricky, especially when balancing the trade-off between employment, growth, and inflation. The situation grows increasingly complex with the loomingelection, where policy decisions could appear to favour one party over the other, potentially jeopardising the Fed’s image as politically neutral. These factors leave great uncertainty over the trajectory for interest rates and even greater uncertainty over how markets will react. The Fed, however, remain committed to data dependence, meaning markets will hold their breath over each and every economic data point in the coming months, likely leading to further turbulence.
1 Core CPI is a measure of inflation which excludes volatile components such as food and energy costs.
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