It is hard to know what is going to happen. While people like to hear a single view about the outlook for the global economy, with plenty of point forecasts for key variables like growth and inflation, the future is in fact best expressed as a range of possible outcomes; see my colleague Lorenzo La Posta’s blog from two week’s ago (“Embracing Uncertainty”) for a good explanation of what this looks like in practice.
Today, uncertainty takes many forms. It revolves around inflation, supply chains, energy prices, interest rates, wages, growth and more. Is the current bout of inflation more than transitory, or will inflation indicators turn down towards the widely used 2% target any time soon?